Головна

Text 19

Poor cognitive habits are likely to prevail during international crises where high stress tends to: heighten the salience of time and concern for the present and immediate future; reduce the size of the policy-making group or the individuals with which one interacts: minimize communication with potential adversaries; increase use of ad hoc communication channels; encourage random and selective search for information; reduce tolerance for ambiguity and increase the likelihood to stereotype and rationalize; increase cognitive rigidity, reliance on familiar decision rules, and metaphorical thinking; limit the search and assessment of alternatives, often to one approach; increase the likelihood of a polarized choice, favouring positions of over cautiousness or greater risk taking; and disrupt learning and the re-examination of decisions. The stress produced by international crises often contributes to a more closed decision-making process, poor policy-making performance, and maladaptive behaviour/ yet it is important to note that crises and stress do not guarantee defective decision-making; they are likely to constrain or inhibit only so-called open-minded decision-making. This is because, as Holti states, "individuals appear to differ rather widely in the ability to tolerate stress, the threshold at which it begins to impair performance, and strategies for coping with various types of stress." Furthermore, "just as we cannot assume that "good" processes will ensure high-quality decisions, we cannot assume that erratic processes will always result in low- quality decisions" or end up in fiascoes. Cybernetic and cognitive processes are often very functional and powerful, although not necessary optimal, for making the myriad decisions we face. Ultimately, policy formulation and choice will be affected heavily by individual cognition and personality, which are usually heightened during periods of crisis and high stress.

 



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